Which one of these brokers is reliable? I have read reviews on slippage and freezing markets on almost every broker i search. 1. Fxtm 2. Hotforex 3. XM 4. Exness submitted by
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if someone can guide me I'll really appreciate it. i have read other reddit posts but most of them have affiliates commenting for the brokers.
Managers face a new challenge–managing a remote forex trader team with more and more Forex companies looking out for outsourcing. Events such as motivational tactics, task control and Communications still require a specialist approach even if this has been simplified using technology and a high-speed Internet. submitted by
The advantages of employing people on a distance are endless and make your competitive edge easy. Your company can help create a talented team of the best specialists in the market because you can not just hire people from everywhere in the world. This is why a remote employment type will continue to gain momentum in the future. It’s all the challenges that value it.
Remote job is very easy–output, autonomy and flexibility. You influence the manner you operate your team, the smoothness and achievement of the company procedures. And although most individuals still think that remote employees are not as productive as usual in office, the reality of the matter is that most remote employees actually see an increase in productivity equal to a complete additional working day.
So how do you efficiently handle a distant team? How can you contribute to its growth, commitment and coordination? Below are some tips that we have collected to assist you find the response.
TIP 1 – Maintain high performance
If your team scatters throughout the world, productivity can be impacted, unless certain measures are taken to keep it. It is not only difficult to say in a virtual environment how much time your staff spend on assignments and how successful they are, but also it is essential to be evident how the entire team handles the workload.
Therefore, it is essential that a business process is well thought-out and that several software tools are used. Training tools such as Toggl or Clockify can help you to really understand the processes underway, the amount of time spent on these projects, and the number of breaks taken in real time. This allows executives to identify the weaknesses of each worker and attempt to solve them.
This doesn’t imply that you need to overuse these applications and develop stringent procedures. If you work remotely, you are likely to choose this due to the flexibility it provides you. Managers need to strike a balance between liberty and coherent timescales for their staff.
For instance, they must decide which communication instruments they use to discuss issues of great significance–Chat with urgent subjects, Email with stuff to wait and Video Calls. Furthermore, all project information must be available to every member of the team (instruments like Google Drive and DropBox may assist). It must also ensure complete transparency and transparency.
They also need to bear in mind always that distant workers can all operate in distinct time zones, so that everyone can tune in to a video call, it is essential to discover a time window. Also, when employing persons, you need to ensure that your location time differences are not more than 3 hours from the time zone of your office. Due to time differences, for each conference you always have to have a very clear agenda and must stick to it.
Finally, you need to measure the yield to always have your hand on the pulse. Try to list all the main points in the work of each team member that indicate the performance. Set clear objectives with measurable outcomes so you can see clearly what is anticipated and how well your staff are responding to these expectations. Hold monthly reviews in the team to see how all people work together and whether everyone handles them properly.
However, do not be scared to give honest feedback, remember that individuals almost always concentrate more on beneficial than adverse points. This is why executives have to be frank and always attempt to discover something useful at the end.
TIP 2 – Strengthen communication skills
For each team, good communication between employees is essential, but for distant teams in particular. The absence of physical attendance and distinct working schedules can all lead your team members to operate as people instead of a united front.
Remote teams effectively need to interact twice if not three times the ordinary team. And executives must support these communications by creating more possibilities.
Set some of your team’s prompters. Say you always mark the time places if you are on your schedule for calls. Select and ensure your team uses the primary communication instruments. Implement instruments like Slack, WebEx and Skype and let your staff know that they are available all the time. Agree on the duration of an email reply so that you understand when to expect answers to your message.
Try as much as necessary to integrate video calls. IMCCAs have found that, when they actively use video conference instruments, 90% of remote personnel feel more linked with their team. Video enables your team to make a name face and bind better. When you see a individual, it’s always simpler to speak to than just by messaging.
Video calling helps your distant team feel moved and isolated less.
Share your screen with your team members to facilitate and clarify clarifications. Create distinct channels for sharing of interesting stuff, such as fun stories, suggestions for films or updates on TV shows that you all view.
Your purpose is to create a virtual environment that fosters and enhances
communication between your team.
TIP 3 – Engaging, Inspiring And Motivating
The main element of effective teamwork is motivation. Entrepreneur says company costs 450 to $550 billion per year in losses of productivity for an unmotivated or de-engaged employee.
Managers who work with remote teams have to invest in them and work hard every day to increase morality. In distant teams it is even more essential to build a powerful corporate culture than in the physical.
Begin with transparency, one of the basic elements of a driven team. You need to make sure that all of your team know precisely what the business is doing, its goals and its role. Share corporate news and updates, celebrate your own accomplishments and attempt to make your team feel real.
Be frank and let them know you as their leader. Discuss yourselves with them and share your private vision. Describe the stuff you handle at the moment, so they know that you do as difficult as you do. Request your advice on various issues and opinions.
Be in keeping with feedback and with your praise in particular. Don’t just ask them to do a nice job, but to highlight certain accomplishments and duties. In corporate public chats, try also to praise your distant staff for their accomplishments throughout the whole business.
Create your team’s rituals and traditions. Celebrate the birthdays and unique occasions of your distant staff. Why doesn’t every team member ask for a brief video that you wish to edit later and send to your partner celebrating?
Improve camaraderie with true private communication through investments at least once a year in corporate retreats where your distant team can meet in reality.
Find out more here about motivating your team.
TIP 4 – Select your team with wisely
Hiring individuals with the correct distance to work is your halfway to achievement. It’s all about everything else. You can also influence your entire team with a lazy or unprofessional distant worker. This is why certain precautions are essential during the recruitment process.
First and foremost, nobody claims you have to employ the individual from the beginning. Test your skills and abilities for a number of months by employing them part-time and giving them the opportunity to work long term when you’re sure they’re a nice addition to your staff.
Don’t be stingy with salaries. Just because your employee is working remotely doesn’t mean that they aren’t doing more than your typical office worker does. In most cases, remote workers are actually doing more, so their salaries have to reflect this.
Make sure your fresh remote staff can function from home. Do you have a good working environment where you can concentrate without distractions? Otherwise, it may be better to propose either paying for co-working space or buying equipment to build that room at home for them.
Take into consideration that your staff can all come from distinct nations and cultures. Learn how to talk obviously and broadly convey your message. Ask your team in their message to use easy phrases and a neutral tone. Maintain a calendar of all global holidays affecting and planning your team members.
Make sure fresh staff are quick to retire. Create a guide with all the primary information about your job and the instruments you use. Ask your team members to share their finest advice on remote working. Recall the faster the better they adjust.
Managing distance teams can be challenging, but actually you can create a skilled, loyal, hard-working team with a few simple rules to assist your company to succeed.
What factors predict the success of a Steam game?
I've seen quite a few discussions, comments and questions on /gamedev
about what determines a game's success. How much does quality matter? Is establishing market awareness before launch the only thing that matters? Does a demo help or hurt? If your game has a poor launch, how likely is it to recover? Is it possible to roughly predict the sales of a game before launch?
In preparation for my game's launch
, I spent a lot of time monitoring upcoming releases trying to find the answer to these questions. I compiled a spreadsheet, noted followers, whether it was Early Access or not, and saw how many reviews it received in the first week, month and quarter.
I'm sharing this data now in the hopes that it helps other developers understand and predict their games' sales.
First some notes on the data:
- One of the important sources of data are the number Steam reviews. There is good evidence that these correlate strongly with copies sold, with frequently cited ratios of 50 sales per Steam review, but there's a wide range. It seems likely that the majority of Steam games fall between 25 and 120 sales per Steam review, but there are outliers. Also, games with a very small number of reviews are much more likely to be outliers in this respect. My own game is the only game I have hard sales numbers for. You can read my lengthy Reddit post on its release, but the relevant numbers are that it sold 1587 copies in the first week and 3580 copies in its first quarter.
- The total number of games in the sample was 115.
- I selected games semi-randomly from from both Popular Upcoming and All Upcoming. This favors the popular upcoming tab somewhat and this was deliberate: I wanted a diverse sample but also one not completely dominated with titles that sold zero copies.
- Games are ordered by their release date which range from 10/26/18 to 12/20/18.
|Game ||Price ||Launch Discount ||Week Guess ||Week actual ||3 Month ||3 Month/week ||Followers ||Early Access ||Demo ||Review Score |
|Pit of Doom ||9.99 ||0 ||7 ||27 ||43 ||1.592592593 ||295 ||Y ||N ||0.8 |
|Citrouille ||9.99 ||0.2 ||16 ||8 ||12 ||1.5 ||226 ||N ||N || |
|Corspe Party: Book ||14.99 ||0.1 ||32 ||40 ||79 ||1.975 ||1015 ||N ||N ||0.95 |
|Call of Cthulhu ||44.99 ||0 ||800 ||875 ||1595 ||1.822857143 ||26600 ||N ||N ||0.74 |
|On Space ||0.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||0 ||0 || ||4 ||N ||N || |
|Orphan ||14.99 ||0 ||50 ||0 ||8 || ||732 ||N ||N || |
|Black Bird ||19.99 ||0 ||20 ||13 ||34 ||2.615384615 ||227 ||N ||N || |
|Gloom ||6.99 ||0 ||20 ||8 ||17 ||2.125 ||159 ||N ||N || |
|Gilded Rails ||5.99 ||0.35 ||2 ||3 ||7 ||2.333333333 ||11 ||N ||Y || |
|The Quiet Man ||14.99 ||0.1 ||120 ||207 ||296 ||1.429951691 ||5596 ||N ||N ||0.31 |
|KartKraft ||19.99 ||0.1 ||150 ||90 ||223 ||2.477777778 ||7691 ||Y ||N ||0.84 |
|The Other Half ||7.99 ||0 ||2 ||3 ||27 ||9 ||91 ||N ||Y ||0.86 |
|Parabolus ||14.99 ||0.15 ||0 ||0 ||0 || ||16 ||N ||Y || |
|Yet Another Tower Defense ||1.99 ||0.4 ||20 ||22 ||38 ||1.727272727 ||396 ||N ||N ||0.65 |
|Galaxy Squad ||9.99 ||0.25 || ||8 ||42 ||5.25 ||3741 ||Y ||N ||0.87 |
|Swords and Soldiers 2 ||14.99 ||0.1 ||65 ||36 ||63 ||1.75 ||1742 ||N ||N ||0.84 |
|SpitKiss ||2.99 ||0 ||3 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||63 ||N ||N || |
|Holy Potatoes ||14.99 ||0 ||24 ||11 ||22 ||2 ||617 ||N ||N ||0.7 |
|Kursk ||29.99 ||0.15 ||90 ||62 ||98 ||1.580645161 ||2394 ||N ||N ||0.57 |
|SimpleRockets 2 ||14.99 ||0.15 ||90 ||142 ||272 ||1.915492958 ||3441 ||Y ||N ||0.85 |
|Egress ||14.99 ||0.15 ||160 ||44 ||75 ||1.704545455 ||7304 ||Y ||N ||0.67 |
|Kynseed ||9.99 ||0 ||600 ||128 ||237 ||1.8515625 ||12984 ||Y ||N ||0.86 |
|11-11 Memories ||29.99 ||0 ||30 ||10 ||69 ||6.9 ||767 ||N ||N ||0.96 |
|Rage in Peace ||12.99 ||0.1 ||15 ||10 ||42 ||4.2 ||377 ||N ||N ||0.85 |
|One Hour One Life ||19.99 ||0 ||12 ||153 ||708 ||4.62745098 ||573 ||N ||N ||0.81 |
|Optica ||9.99 ||0 ||0 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||18 ||N ||N || |
|Cybarian ||5.99 ||0.15 ||8 ||4 ||18 ||4.5 ||225 ||N ||N || |
|Zeon 25 ||3.99 ||0.3 ||3 ||11 ||12 ||1.090909091 ||82 ||Y ||N || |
|Of Gods and Men ||7.99 ||0.4 ||3 ||10 ||18 ||1.8 ||111 ||N ||Y || |
|Welcome to Princeland ||4.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||15 ||55 ||3.666666667 ||30 ||N ||N ||0.85 |
|Zero Caliber VR ||24.99 ||0.1 ||100 ||169 ||420 ||2.485207101 ||5569 ||Y ||N ||0.73 |
|HellSign ||14.99 ||0 ||100 ||131 ||334 ||2.549618321 ||3360 ||Y ||N ||0.85 |
|Thief Simulator ||19.99 ||0.15 ||400 ||622 ||1867 ||3.001607717 ||10670 ||N ||N ||0.81 |
|Last Stanza ||7.99 ||0.1 ||8 ||2 ||4 ||2 ||228 ||N ||Y || |
|Evil Bank Manager ||11.99 ||0.1 || ||106 ||460 ||4.339622642 ||8147 ||Y ||N ||0.78 |
|Oppai Puzzle ||0.99 ||0.3 || ||36 ||93 ||2.583333333 ||54 ||N ||N ||0.92 |
|Hexen Hegemony ||9.99 ||0.15 ||3 ||1 ||5 ||5 ||55 ||Y ||N || |
|Blokin ||2.99 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||10 ||N ||N || |
|Light Fairytale Ep 1 ||9.99 ||0.1 ||80 ||23 ||54 ||2.347826087 ||4694 ||Y ||N ||0.89 |
|The Last Sphinx ||2.99 ||0.1 ||0 ||0 ||1 ||0 ||17 ||N ||N || |
|Glassteroids ||9.99 ||0.2 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||5 ||Y ||N || |
|Hitman 2 ||59.99 ||0 ||2000 ||2653 ||3677 ||1.385978138 ||52226 ||N ||N ||0.88 |
|Golf Peaks ||4.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||8 ||25 ||3.125 ||46 ||N ||N ||1 |
|Sipho ||13.99 ||0 ||24 ||5 ||14 ||2.8 ||665 ||Y ||N || |
|Distraint 2 ||8.99 ||0.1 ||40 ||104 ||321 ||3.086538462 ||1799 ||N ||N ||0.97 |
|Healing Harem ||12.99 ||0.1 ||24 ||10 ||15 ||1.5 ||605 ||N ||N || |
|Spark Five ||2.99 ||0.3 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||7 ||N ||N || |
|Bad Dream: Fever ||9.99 ||0.2 ||30 ||78 ||134 ||1.717948718 ||907 ||N ||N ||0.72 |
|Underworld Ascendant ||29.99 ||0.15 ||200 ||216 ||288 ||1.333333333 ||8870 ||N ||N ||0.34 |
|Reentry ||19.99 ||0.15 ||8 ||24 ||78 ||3.25 ||202 ||Y ||N ||0.95 |
|Zvezda ||5.99 ||0 ||2 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||25 ||Y ||Y || |
|Space Gladiator ||2.99 ||0 ||0 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||5 ||N ||N || |
|Bad North ||14.99 ||0.1 ||500 ||360 ||739 ||2.052777778 ||15908 ||N ||N ||0.8 |
|Sanctus Mortem ||9.99 ||0.15 ||3 ||3 ||3 ||1 ||84 ||N ||Y || |
|The Occluder ||1.99 ||0.2 ||1 ||1 ||1 ||1 ||13 ||N ||N || |
|Dark Fantasy: Jigsaw ||2.99 ||0.2 ||1 ||9 ||36 ||4 ||32 ||N ||N ||0.91 |
|Farming Simulator 19 ||34.99 ||0 ||1500 ||3895 ||5759 ||1.478562259 ||37478 ||N ||N ||0.76 |
|Don't Forget Our Esports Dream ||14.99 ||0.13 ||3 ||16 ||22 ||1.375 ||150 ||N ||N ||1 |
|Space Toads Mayhem ||3.99 ||0.15 ||1 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||18 ||N ||N || |
|Cattle Call ||11.99 ||0.1 ||10 ||19 ||53 ||2.789473684 ||250 ||Y ||N ||0.71 |
|Ralf ||9.99 ||0.2 ||0 ||0 ||2 ||0 ||6 ||N ||N || |
|Elite Archery ||0.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||5 ||Y ||N || |
|Evidence of Life ||4.99 ||0 ||0 ||2 ||4 ||2 ||10 ||N ||N || |
|Trinity VR ||4.99 ||0 ||2 ||8 ||15 ||1.875 ||61 ||N ||N || |
|Quiet as a Stone ||9.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||1 ||4 ||4 ||42 ||N ||N || |
|Overdungeon ||14.99 ||0 ||3 ||86 ||572 ||6.651162791 ||77 ||Y ||N ||0.91 |
|Protocol ||24.99 ||0.15 ||60 ||41 ||117 ||2.853658537 ||1764 ||N ||N ||0.68 |
|Scraper: First Strike ||29.99 ||0 ||3 ||3 ||15 ||5 ||69 ||N ||N || |
|Experiment Gone Rogue ||16.99 ||0 ||1 ||1 ||5 ||5 ||27 ||Y ||N || |
|Emerald Shores ||9.99 ||0.2 ||0 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||12 ||N ||N || |
|Age of Civilizations II ||4.99 ||0 ||600 ||1109 ||2733 ||2.464382326 ||18568 ||N ||N ||0.82 |
|Dereliction ||4.99 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||0 ||#DIV/0! ||18 ||N ||N || |
|Poopy Philosophy ||0.99 ||0 ||0 ||6 ||10 ||1.666666667 ||6 ||N ||N || |
|NOCE ||17.99 ||0.1 ||1 ||3 ||4 ||1.333333333 ||35 ||N ||N || |
|Qu-tros ||2.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||3 ||7 ||2.333333333 ||4 ||N ||N || |
|Mosaics Galore. Challenging Journey ||4.99 ||0.2 ||1 ||1 ||8 ||8 ||14 ||N ||N || |
|Zquirrels Jump ||2.99 ||0.4 ||0 ||1 ||4 ||4 ||9 ||N ||N || |
|Dark Siders III ||59.99 ||0 ||2400 ||1721 ||2708 ||1.573503777 ||85498 ||N ||N ||0.67 |
|R-Type Dimensions Ex ||14.99 ||0.2 ||10 ||48 ||64 ||1.333333333 ||278 ||N ||N ||0.92 |
|Artifact ||19.99 ||0 ||7000 ||9700 ||16584 ||1.709690722 ||140000 ||N ||N ||0.53 |
|Crimson Keep ||14.99 ||0.15 ||20 ||5 ||6 ||1.2 ||367 ||N ||N || |
|Rival Megagun ||14.99 ||0 ||35 ||26 ||31 ||1.192307692 ||818 ||N ||N || |
|Santa's Workshop ||1.99 ||0.1 ||3 ||1 ||1 ||1 ||8 ||N ||N || |
|Hentai Shadow ||1.99 ||0.3 || ||2 ||12 ||6 ||14 ||N ||N || |
|Ricky Runner ||12.99 ||0.3 ||3 ||6 ||13 ||2.166666667 ||66 ||Y ||N ||0.87 |
|Pro Fishing Simulator ||39.99 ||0.15 ||24 ||20 ||19 ||0.95 ||609 ||N ||N ||0.22 |
|Broken Reality ||14.99 ||0.1 ||60 ||58 ||138 ||2.379310345 ||1313 ||N ||Y ||0.98 |
|Rapture Rejects ||19.99 ||0 ||200 ||82 ||151 ||1.841463415 ||9250 ||Y ||N ||0.64 |
|Lost Cave ||19.99 ||0 ||3 ||8 ||11 ||1.375 ||43 ||Y ||N || |
|Epic Battle Fantasy 5 ||14.99 ||0 ||300 ||395 ||896 ||2.26835443 ||4236 ||N ||N ||0.97 |
|Ride 3 ||49.99 ||0 ||75 ||161 ||371 ||2.304347826 ||1951 ||N ||N ||0.74 |
|Escape Doodland ||9.99 ||0.2 ||25 ||16 ||19 ||1.1875 ||1542 ||N ||N || |
|Hillbilly Apocalypse ||5.99 ||0.1 ||0 ||1 ||2 ||2 ||8 ||N ||N || |
|X4 ||49.99 ||0 ||1500 ||2638 ||4303 ||1.63115997 ||38152 ||N ||N ||0.7 |
|Splotches ||9.99 ||0.15 ||0 ||2 ||1 ||0.5 ||10 ||N ||N || |
|Above the Fold ||13.99 ||0.15 ||5 ||2 ||6 ||3 ||65 ||Y ||N || |
|The Seven Chambers ||12.99 ||0.3 ||3 ||0 ||0 ||#DIV/0! ||55 ||N ||N || |
|Terminal Conflict ||29.99 ||0 ||5 ||4 ||11 ||2.75 ||125 ||Y ||N || |
|Just Cause 4 ||59.99 ||0 ||2400 ||2083 ||3500 ||1.680268843 ||50000 ||N ||N ||0.34 |
|Grapple Force Rena ||14.99 ||0 ||11 ||12 ||29 ||2.416666667 ||321 ||N ||Y || |
|Beholder 2 ||14.99 ||0.1 || ||479 ||950 ||1.983298539 ||16000 ||N ||N ||0.84 |
|Blueprint Word ||1.99 ||0 || ||12 ||15 ||1.25 ||244 ||N ||Y || |
|Aeon of Sands ||19.99 ||0.1 ||20 ||12 ||25 ||2.083333333 ||320 ||N ||N || |
|Oakwood ||4.99 ||0.1 || ||32 ||68 ||2.125 ||70 ||N ||N ||0.82 |
|Endhall ||4.99 ||0 ||4 ||22 ||42 ||1.909090909 ||79 ||N ||N ||0.84 |
|Dr. Cares - Family Practice ||12.99 ||0.25 ||6 ||3 ||8 ||2.666666667 ||39 ||N ||N || |
|Treasure Hunter ||16.99 ||0.15 ||200 ||196 ||252 ||1.285714286 ||4835 ||N ||N ||0.6 |
|Forex Trading ||1.99 ||0.4 ||7 ||10 ||14 ||1.4 ||209 ||N ||N || |
|Ancient Frontier ||14.99 ||0 ||24 ||5 ||16 ||3.2 ||389 ||N ||N || |
|Fear the Night ||14.99 ||0.25 ||25 ||201 ||440 ||2.189054726 ||835 ||Y ||N ||0.65 |
|Subterraneus ||12.99 ||0.1 ||4 ||0 ||3 ||#DIV/0! ||82 ||N ||N || |
|Starcom: Nexus ||14.99 ||0.15 || ||53 ||119 ||2.245283019 ||1140 ||Y ||N ||0.93 |
|Subject 264 ||14.99 ||0.2 ||25 ||2 ||3 ||1.5 ||800 ||N ||N || |
|Gris ||16.9 ||0 ||100 ||1484 ||4650 ||3.133423181 ||5779 ||N ||N ||0.96 |
|Exiled to the Void ||7.99 ||0.3 ||9 ||4 ||11 ||2.75 ||84 ||Y ||N || |
For the columns that are not self-explanatory:
- Launch Discount: Percent first week discount, 0.25 = 25% off
- Week Guess: This is my guess, made before the game launched as to how many Steam purchaser reviews it would have after exactly one week.
- Week Actual: The number of reviews that the game had after 1 week.
- 3 Month: The number of reviews that the game had after 3 months.
- Followers: The number of group followers the game had prior to launch. In some cases this recorded just before launch, in some cases up to a week before.
- Review score: The percent favorable score on Steam at the one month mark. Games needed a minimum of 20 reviews to be counted.
Question 1: Does Quality Predict Success?
There was a recent blog post stating that the #1 metric for indie games' success is how good it is.
Quality is obviously a subjective metric. The most obvious objective measure of quality for Steam games is their % Favorable Review score. This is the percentage of reviews by purchasers of the game that gave the game a positive rating. I excluded any game that did not have at least 20 user reviews in the first month, which limited the sample size to 56.
The (Pearson) correlation of a game's review score to its number of reviews three months after its release was -0.2. But 0.2 (plus or minus) isn't a very strong correlation at all. More importantly, Pearson correlation can be swayed if the data contains some big outliers. Looking at the actual games, we can see that the difference is an artifact of an outlier. Literally. Valve's Artifact by far had the most reviews after three months and had one of the lowest review scores (53% at the time). Removing this game from the data changed the correlation to essentially zero.
Spearman's Rho, an alternative correlation model that correlates rank position and minimizes the effect of huge outliers produced a similar result. Conclusion: If there is correlation between a game's quality (as measured by Steam review score) and first quarter sales (as measured by total review count), it is too subtle to be detected in this data.
Question 2: Do Demos, Early Access or Launch Discounts Affect Success/Failure?
Unfortunately, there were so few games that had demos prior to release (10) that only a very strong correlation would really tell us anything. As it happens, there was no meaningful correlation one way or another.
There were more Early Access titles (28), but again the correlation was too small to be meaningful.
More than half the titles had a launch week discount and there was actually a moderate negative correlation of -0.3 between having a launch discount and first week review count. However it appears that this is primarily the result of the tendency of AAA titles (which sell the most copies) to not do launch discounts. Removing the titles that likely grossed over a $1 million in the first week reduced the correlation to basically zero. Conclusion: Insufficient data. No clear correlation between demos, Early Access or launch discount and review counts: if they help or hurt the effect is not consistent enough to be seen here.
Question 3: Does pre-launch awareness (i.e., Steam followers) predict success?
You can see the number of "followers" for any game on Steam by searching for its automatically-created Community Group
. Prior to launch, this is a good rough indicator of market awareness.
The correlation between group followers shortly before launch and review count at 3 months was 0.89. That's a very strong positive correlation. The rank correlation was also high (0.85) suggesting that this wasn't the result of a few highly anticipated games.
Save for a single outlier (discussed later), the ratio of 3 month review counts to pre-launch followers ranged from 0 (for the handful of games that never received any reviews) to 1.8, with a median value of 0.1. If you have 1000 followers just prior to launch, then at the end of the first quarter you should expect "about" 100 reviews.
One thing I noticed was that there were a few games that had follower counts that seemed too high compared to secondary indicators of market awareness, such as discussion forum threads and Twitter engagement. After some investigation I came to the conclusion that pre-launch key activations are treated as followers by Steam. If a game gave away a lot of Steam keys before launch (say as Kickstarter rewards or part of beta testing) this would cause the game to appear to have more followers than it had gained "organically." Conclusion: Organic followers prior to launch are a strong predictor of a game's eventual success.
Question 4: What about price?
The correlation between price and review count at 3 month is 0.36, which is moderate correlation. I'm not sure how useful that data point is: it is somewhat obvious that higher budget games have larger marketing budgets.
There is a correlation between price and review score of -0.41. It seems likely that players do factor price into their reviews and a game priced at $60 has a higher bar to clear to earn a thumbs up review than a game priced at $10.
Question 5: Do first week sales predict first quarter results?
The correlation between number of reviews after 1 week and number of reviews after 3 months was 0.99. The Spearman correlation was 0.97. This is the highest correlation I found in the data.
Excluding games that sold very few copies (fewer than 5 reviews after the first week), most games had around twice as many reviews after 3 months as they did after 1 week. This suggests that games sell about as many copies in their first week as they do in the next 12 weeks combined. The vast majority of games had a tail ratio (ratio of reviews at 3 months to 1 week) of between 1.3 to 3.2.
I have seen a number of questions from developers whose game had a poor launch on Steam and wanted to know what they can do to improve sales. While I'm certain post-launch marketing can have an effect on continuing sales, your first week does seem to set hard bounds on your results. Conclusion: ALL SIGNS POINT TO YES
Question 6: Does Quality Help with a Game's "Tail"?
As discussed in the last question while first week sales are very strongly correlated with first quarter, there's still quite a wide range of ratios. Defining a game's Tail Ratio
as the ratio of reviews after 3 months to after 1 week, the lowest value was 0.95 for "Pro Fishing Simulator" which actually managed to lose 1 review. The highest ratio was 6.9, an extreme outlier that I'll talk about later. It is perhaps not a coincidence that the worst tail had a Steam score of 22% and the best tail had a Steam score of 96%.
The overall correlation between the Tail Ratio and Steam score was 0.42. Conclusion: Even though there is no clear correlation between quality and overall review count/sales, there is a moderate correlation between a game's review score and its tail. This suggests that "good games" do better in the long run than "bad games," but the effect is small compared to the more important factor of pre-launch awareness.
Question 7: Is it possible to predict a game's success before launch without knowing its wishlists?
While I was compiling the data for each game, sometime prior to its scheduled launch date, I would make a prediction of how many reviews I thought it would receive in its first week and add that prediction to the spreadsheet.
The #1 factor I used in making my prediction was group follower count. In some cases I would adjust my prediction if I thought that value was off, using secondary sources such as Steam forum activity and Twitter engagement.
The correlation between my guess and the actual value was 0.96, which is a very strong correlation. As you can see in the data, the predictions are, for the most part, in the right ballpack with a few cases where I was way off.
Based on my experience, multiplying the group follower count by 0.1 will, in most cases, give you a ballpark sense of the first
quarter review count. If a game doesn't have at least one question in the discussion forum for every 100 followers, that may indicate that there are large number of "inorganic" followers and you may need to adjust your estimate. Conclusion: Yes, with a few exceptions, using follower data and other indicators you can predict first week results approximately. Given the strong correlation between first week and quarter sales, it should also be possible to have a ballpark idea of first quarter results before launch.
Final Question: What about the outliers you mentioned?
There were a few games in the data that stood out significantly in one way or another.
Outlier #1: Overdungeon. This game had 77 group followers shortly before launch, a fairly small number and based solely on that number I would have expected fewer than a dozen reviews in the first week. It ended up with 86. Not only that, it had a strong tail and finished its first quarter with 572 reviews. This was by a wide margin the highest review count to follower ratio in the sample.
Based on the reviews, it appears to basically be Slay the Spire, but huge in Asia. 90% of the reviews seem to be in Japanese or Chinese. If anyone has some insight to this game's unusual apparent success, I'm very curious.
This seems to be the only clear example in the data of a game with minimal following prior to launch going on to having a solid first quarter.
Outlier #2: 11-11 Memories Retold. This game had 767 group followers shortly before launch, ten times as many as Overdungeon. That's still not a large number for even a small indie title. It had a fair amount going for it, though: it was directed by Yoan Fanise, who co-directed the critally acclaimed Valiant Hearts, a game with a similar theme. It was animated by Aardman Studios of "Wallace and Gromit" fame. Its publisher was Bandai Namco Europe, a not inexperienced publisher. The voice acting was by Sebastian Koch and Elijah Wood. It has dozens of good reviews in both gaming and traditional press. It currently has a 95% positive review rating on Steam.
Despite all that, nobody bought it. 24 hours after it came out it had literally zero reviews on Steam. One week after it came out it had just 10. Three months later it had demonstrated the largest tail in the data, but even then it had only climbed to 69 reviews. Now it's at about 100, an incredible tail ratio, but almost certainly a commercial failure.
This is a solid example that good game + good production values does necessarily equal good sales.
The big take-aways from this analysis are:
- The success of a game on Steam very strongly depends on its first week performance
- A game's first week performance is strongly correlated with its pre-launch market awareness
- Quality does not seem to strongly impact first week performance, but may have some positive effect on a game's "tail"
- All inferences regarding sales are dependent on the relationship between review counts and sales
Thanks for reading!
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